How to See the Picture for Yourself

Posted On 22 January 2021

Last updated on April 9th, 2024

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” ― Mark Twain

As I take trips around the Sun on this rock we call Earth I get wiser with each trip, or at least I like to think I get wiser. Often, we can look at the world and wonder why is it so messed up. Why doesn’t this picture make sense?

Speaking of taking trips around the Sun, that was not always the accepted view of the Universe. Astronomer, Nicolaus Copernicus, noted that the anomalies in the universe could be straightened out by putting the Sun at the center instead of the Earth. There were even some ancient Greeks who theorized that the Sun may be the center of the universe.

Galileo Galilei read Copernicus’s work and used the newly invented telescope to make observations. This heresy got the attention of the Catholic Church and they brought in the inquisition to settle the matter. The inquisition determined that there was enough evidence in the Holy Bible that proved the Earth was the stationary center of the universe. They forced Galileo to recant his findings.

Today we know that the Sun is the center of the solar system, not the Earth. There are things that we experience in our lives that are similarly not the way they first appear or were explained to us. For example, I was told if I worked hard, I would be rewarded. The most common reward that I have received was simply more work!

Magic Eye

Remember those crazy pictures that you had to stare at to try to see something? I tried, and I tried, and I tried. Finally, I was able to see the 3-D image inside the picture! …and it was amazing!!

Why do I tell you about those silly pictures? At first, they look like a chaotic mess. If you can figure out HOW to see the hidden picture, you find there is something truly amazing with those pictures.

The same holds true with life and finances. When we can learn how a person gets paid, we can better understand why they say what they say. If a person is encouraging you to by a certain stock, find out if they are trying to sell you some of their shares. Or maybe they are a broker who gets paid a commission for selling you the stock. That broker will get paid if you make money or lose money.

Now, both people I mentioned could be offering you a great deal. Maybe not. Either way, it is our responsibility to do our own research.

Two Reasons for Doing Things

With understanding how a person gets paid, a lot of information can be gained. As J. P. Morgan said, “A man generally has two reasons for doing a thing; one that sounds good, and a real one.”

A salesman would not sell much if he only told the customer to buy a certain item because the salesman would earn a lot of money. That salesman, though, could sell a lot of that same item by helping the customers solve a problem with that particular item.

The real reason does not have to be something evil. It just might not be what the other person is interested in or it might not be something that concerns them. I found it really eye-opening to realize this fact of life, and it really changed the way I picture the world.

Two Tongues

Along with the two reasons, people also have two tongues – one in their mouth and one in their shoe. The one in the mouth can say a lot of things, but the tongue in their shoe will show you the direction they are really headed.

As customers we sometimes tell salesmen that we are just looking – even when want to buy! Kids can tell their parents that they are studying and doing their homework, but the truth comes out with the report cards.

I also think of the expression, “What you do speaks so loudly, I can’t hear what you’re saying.” Actions really do speak louder than words! Also, a picture is worth 1,000 words.

Nobody Knows the Future

It can be comforting to sit back and listen to experts talk about what the market is going to do. They talk so confidently! They sound so eloquent and sophisticated! The truth is, they don’t know the future any better than the rest of us.

Some people can do a damn good job at predicting things. The way they are able to predict so well is that they have access to better data and they look at things differently than most people do. Think of the magic eye pictures. The people who do better with predicting the future have fine-tuned the skill.

There are a lot of things that can be done, though to manipulate predictions in order be perceived as having a better track record than actually exists. I’m not covering that in this post, just noting that manipulation does happen.

Learn from History

A great way that we can get an insight into the future is to look at the past. We can see what events lead up to a great success or a great calamity. While the events can occur on a personal, national, or global scale, we can see how the situation progressed the last time this happened, and we can prepare ourselves. It allows us to get a better picture of what is going on in the world.

I majored in history. History can be quite fascinating when you really get into it. In the book of Ecclesiastes, the Preacher proclaimed, “There is nothing new under the Sun.” It amazed me when I first read that passage since that was written almost 1,000 years before Christ! The past does tend to repeat itself.

Looking for Patterns

Just as the seasons follow each other, there are patterns if we look for them. When a product is selling well prices go up and if the sales of the product slow down, prices come down to encourage more sales.

We can then look at these patterns to help us connecting the dots. This is a concept that I got from Bill Bonner, while reading his Daily Diary newsletter. In December 2021 Bill Bonner started a new newsletter with Tom Dyson and Dan Denning. It is called Bonner Private Research and you can sign up for a daily dose of market insights and witticism. There is both a free newsletter and one that is paid for.

Sharing the Concept

It is not enough that we need to learn how to see patterns in the markets and connect the dots. After we learn to do this we must teach our children how to see the bigger picture so they can have an advantage.

We can also share this information with others. Like the secrets to success and wealth, they are not really secret. They are common sense things that are readily available if we will just look for them. The hardest part is applying these ideas in our lives.